Structural disconnectivity in postoperative delirium: A perioperative two-center cohort study in older patients.

BACKGROUND: Structural disconnectivity was found to precede dementia. Global white matter abnormalities might also be associated with postoperative delirium (POD). METHODS: We recruited older patients (≥65 years) without dementia that were scheduled for major surgery. Diffusion kurtosis imaging metrics were obtained preoperatively, after 3 and 12 months postoperatively. We calculated fractional anisotropy (FA), mean diffusivity (MD), mean kurtosis (MK), and free water (FW). A structured and validated delirium assessment was performed twice daily. RESULTS: Of 325 patients, 53 patients developed POD (16.3%). Preoperative global MD (standardized beta 0.27 [95% confidence interval [CI] 0.21-0.32] p < 0.001) was higher in patients with POD. Preoperative global MK (-0.07 [95% CI -0.11 to (-0.04)] p < 0.001) and FA (0.07 [95% CI -0.10 to (-0.04)] p < 0.001) were lower. When correcting for baseline diffusion, postoperative MD was lower after 3 months (0.05 [95% CI -0.08 to (-0.03)] p < 0.001; n = 183) and higher after 12 months (0.28 [95% CI 0.20-0.35] p < 0.001; n = 45) among patients with POD. DISCUSSION: Preoperative structural disconnectivity was associated with POD. POD might lead to white matter depletion 3 and 12 months after surgery.

The impact of imputation quality on machine learning classifiers for datasets with missing values.

BACKGROUND: Classifying samples in incomplete datasets is a common aim for machine learning practitioners, but is non-trivial. Missing data is found in most real-world datasets and these missing values are typically imputed using established methods, followed by classification of the now complete samples. The focus of the machine learning researcher is to optimise the classifier's performance. METHODS: We utilise three simulated and three real-world clinical datasets with different feature types and missingness patterns. Initially, we evaluate how the downstream classifier performance depends on the choice of classifier and imputation methods. We employ ANOVA to quantitatively evaluate how the choice of missingness rate, imputation method, and classifier method influences the performance. Additionally, we compare commonly used methods for assessing imputation quality and introduce a class of discrepancy scores based on the sliced Wasserstein distance. We also assess the stability of the imputations and the interpretability of model built on the imputed data. RESULTS: The performance of the classifier is most affected by the percentage of missingness in the test data, with a considerable performance decline observed as the test missingness rate increases. We also show that the commonly used measures for assessing imputation quality tend to lead to imputed data which poorly matches the underlying data distribution, whereas our new class of discrepancy scores performs much better on this measure. Furthermore, we show that the interpretability of classifier models trained using poorly imputed data is compromised. CONCLUSIONS: It is imperative to consider the quality of the imputation when performing downstream classification as the effects on the classifier can be considerable.

Many artificial intelligence (AI) methods aim to classify samples of data into groups, e.g., patients with disease vs. those without. This often requires datasets to be complete, i.e., that all data has been collected for all samples. However, in clinical practice this is often not the case and some data can be missing. One solution is to 'complete' the dataset using a technique called imputation to replace those missing values. However, assessing how well the imputation method performs is challenging. In this work, we demonstrate why people should care about imputation, develop a new method for assessing imputation quality, and demonstrate that if we build AI models on poorly imputed data, the model can give different results to those we would hope for. Our findings may improve the utility and quality of AI models in the clinic.

A pipeline to further enhance quality, integrity and reusability of the NCCID clinical data.

The National COVID-19 Chest Imaging Database (NCCID) is a centralized UK database of thoracic imaging and corresponding clinical data. It is made available by the National Health Service Artificial Intelligence (NHS AI) Lab to support the development of machine learning tools focused on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). A bespoke cleaning pipeline for NCCID, developed by the NHSx, was introduced in 2021. We present an extension to the original cleaning pipeline for the clinical data of the database. It has been adjusted to correct additional systematic inconsistencies in the raw data such as patient sex, oxygen levels and date values. The most important changes will be discussed in this paper, whilst the code and further explanations are made publicly available on GitLab. The suggested cleaning will allow global users to work with more consistent data for the development of machine learning tools without being an expert. In addition, it highlights some of the challenges when working with clinical multi-center data and includes recommendations for similar future initiatives.

Presurgical diffusion metrics of the thalamus and thalamic nuclei in postoperative delirium: A prospective two-centre cohort study in older patients.

BACKGROUND: The thalamus seems to be important in the development of postoperative delirium (POD) as previously revealed by volumetric and diffusion magnetic resonance imaging. In this observational cohort study, we aimed to further investigate the impact of the microstructural integrity of the thalamus and thalamic nuclei on the incidence of POD by applying diffusion kurtosis imaging (DKI). METHODS: Older patients without dementia (≥65 years) who were scheduled for major elective surgery received preoperative DKI at two study centres. The DKI metrics fractional anisotropy (FA), mean diffusivity (MD), mean kurtosis (MK) and free water (FW) were calculated for the thalamus and - as secondary outcome - for eight predefined thalamic nuclei and regions. Low FA and MK and, conversely, high MD and FW, indicate aspects of microstructural abnormality. To assess patients' POD status, the Nursing Delirium Screening Scale (Nu-DESC), Richmond Agitation Sedation Scale (RASS), Confusion Assessment Method (CAM) and Confusion Assessment Method for the Intensive Care Unit score (CAM-ICU) and chart review were applied twice a day after surgery for the duration of seven days or until discharge. For each metric and each nucleus, logistic regression was performed to assess the risk of POD. RESULTS: This analysis included the diffusion scans of 325 patients, of whom 53 (16.3 %) developed POD. Independently of age, sex and study centre, thalamic MD was statistically significantly associated with POD [OR 1.65 per SD increment (95 %CI 1.17 - 2.34) p = 0.004]. FA (p = 0.84), MK (p = 0.41) and FW (p = 0.06) were not significantly associated with POD in the examined sample. Exploration of thalamic nuclei also indicated that only the MD in certain areas of the thalamus was associated with POD. MD was increased in bilateral hemispheres, pulvinar nuclei, mediodorsal nuclei and the left anterior nucleus. CONCLUSIONS: Microstructural abnormalities of the thalamus and thalamic nuclei, as reflected by increased MD, appear to predispose to POD. These findings affirm the thalamus as a region of interest in POD research.

Factors Associated with Significant Weight Loss in Hospitalised Patients with COVID-19: A Retrospective Cohort Study in a Large Teaching Hospital.

SARS-CoV-2 infection (COVID-19) is associated with malnutrition risk in hospitalised individuals. COVID-19 and malnutrition studies in large European cohorts are limited, and post-discharge dietary characteristics are understudied. This study aimed to assess the rates of and risk factors for ≥10% weight loss in inpatients with COVID-19, and the need for post-discharge dietetic support and the General Practitioner (GP) prescription of oral nutritional supplements, during the first COVID-19 wave in a large teaching hospital in the UK. Hospitalised adult patients admitted between March and June 2020 with a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis were included in this retrospective cohort study. Demographic, anthropometric, clinical, biochemical, and nutritional parameters associated with ≥10% weight loss and post-discharge characteristics were described. Logistic regression models were used to identify risk factors for ≥10% weight loss and post-discharge requirements for ongoing dietetic input and oral nutritional supplement prescription. From the total 288 patients analysed (40% females, 72 years median age), 19% lost ≥ 10% of their admission weight. The length of hospital stay was a significant risk factor for ≥10% weight loss in multivariable analysis (OR 1.22; 95% CI 1.08-1.38; p = 0.001). In addition, ≥10% weight loss was positively associated with higher admission weight and malnutrition screening scores, dysphagia, ICU admission, and artificial nutrition needs. The need for more than one dietetic input after discharge was associated with older age and ≥10% weight loss during admission. A large proportion of patients admitted to the hospital with COVID-19 experienced significant weight loss during admission. Longer hospital stay is a risk factor for ≥10% weight loss, independent of disease severity, reinforcing the importance of repeated malnutrition screening and timely referral to dietetics.

The Prognostic and Discriminatory Utility of the Clinical Frailty Scale and Modified Frailty Index Compared to Age.

Background: There is no consensus on the optimal method for the assessment of frailty. We compared the prognostic utility of two approaches (modified Frailty Index [mFI], Clinical Frailty Scale [CFS]) in older adults (≥65 years) hospitalised with COVID-19 versus age. Methods: We used a test and validation cohort that enrolled participants hospitalised with COVID-19 between 27 February and 30 June 2020. Multivariable mixed-effects logistic modelling was undertaken, with 28-day mortality as the primary outcome. Nested models were compared between a base model, age and frailty assessments using likelihood ratio testing (LRT) and an area under the receiver operating curves (AUROC). Results: The primary cohort enrolled 998 participants from 13 centres. The median age was 80 (range:65−101), 453 (45%) were female, and 377 (37.8%) died within 28 days. The sample was replicated in a validation cohort of two additional centres (n = 672) with similar characteristics. In the primary cohort, both mFI and CFS were associated with mortality in the base models. There was improved precision when fitting CFS to the base model +mFI (LRT = 25.87, p < 0.001); however, there was no improvement when fitting mFI to the base model +CFS (LRT = 1.99, p = 0.16). AUROC suggested increased discrimination when fitting CFS compared to age (p = 0.02) and age +mFI (p = 0.03). In contrast, the mFI offered no improved discrimination in any comparison (p > 0.05). Similar findings were seen in the validation cohort. Conclusions: These observations suggest the CFS has superior prognostic value to mFI in predicting mortality following COVID-19. Our data do not support the use of the mFI as a tool to aid clinical decision-making and prognosis.

Unquantifiably low aldosterone concentrations are prevalent in hospitalised COVID-19 patients but may not be revealed by chemiluminescent immunoassay.

Objective: Previous studies have reported conflicting findings regarding aldosterone levels in patients hospitalised with COVID-19. We therefore used the gold-standard technique of liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LCMSMS) to address this uncertainty. Design: All patients admitted to Cambridge University Hospitals with COVID-19 between 10 March 2020 and 13 May 2021, and in whom a stored blood sample was available for analysis, were eligible for inclusion. Methods: Aldosterone was measured by LCMSMS and by immunoassay; cortisol and renin were determined by immunoassay. Results: Using LCMSMS, aldosterone was below the limit of detection (<70 pmol/L) in 74 (58.7%) patients. Importantly, this finding was discordant with results obtained using a commonly employed clinical immunoassay (Diasorin LIAISON®), which over-estimated aldosterone compared to the LCMSMS assay (intercept 14.1 (95% CI -34.4 to 54.1) + slope 3.16 (95% CI 2.09-4.15) pmol/L). The magnitude of this discrepancy did not clearly correlate with markers of kidney or liver function. Solvent extraction prior to immunoassay improved the agreement between methods (intercept -14.9 (95% CI -31.9 to -4.3) and slope 1.0 (95% CI 0.89-1.02) pmol/L) suggesting the presence of a water-soluble metabolite causing interference in the direct immunoassay. We also replicated a previous finding that blood cortisol concentrations were often increased, with increased mortality in the group with serum cortisol levels > 744 nmol/L (P = 0.005). Conclusion: When measured by LCMSMS, aldosterone was found to be profoundly low in a significant proportion of patients with COVID-19 at the time of hospital admission. This has likely not been detected previously due to high levels of interference with immunoassays in patients with COVID-19, and this merits further prospective investigation.

A core outcome set for post-COVID-19 condition in adults for use in clinical practice and research: an international Delphi consensus study.

Health consequences that persist beyond the acute infection phase of COVID-19, termed post-COVID-19 condition (also commonly known as long COVID), vary widely and represent a growing global health challenge. Research on post-COVID-19 condition is expanding but, at present, no agreement exists on the health outcomes that should be measured in people living with the condition. To address this gap, we conducted an international consensus study, which included a comprehensive literature review and classification of outcomes for post-COVID-19 condition that informed a two-round online modified Delphi process followed by an online consensus meeting to finalise the core outcome set (COS). 1535 participants from 71 countries were involved, with 1148 individuals participating in both Delphi rounds. Eleven outcomes achieved consensus for inclusion in the final COS: fatigue; pain; post-exertion symptoms; work or occupational and study changes; survival; and functioning, symptoms, and conditions for each of cardiovascular, respiratory, nervous system, cognitive, mental health, and physical outcomes. Recovery was included a priori because it was a relevant outcome that was part of a previously published COS on COVID-19. The next step in this COS development exercise will be to establish the instruments that are most appropriate to measure these core outcomes. This international consensus-based COS should provide a framework for standardised assessment of adults with post-COVID-19 condition, aimed at facilitating clinical care and research worldwide.

Feasibility of non-invasive neuromonitoring in general intensive care patients using a multi-parameter transcranial Doppler approach.

PURPOSE: To assess the feasibility of Transcranial Doppler ultrasonography (TCD) neuromonitoring in a general intensive care environment, in the prognosis and outcome prediction of patients who are in coma due to a variety of critical conditions. METHODS: The prospective trial was performed between March 2017 and March 2019 Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge, UK. Forty adult patients who failed to awake appropriately after resuscitation from cardiac arrest or were in coma due to conditions such as meningitis, seizures, sepsis, metabolic encephalopathies, overdose, multiorgan failure or transplant were eligible for inclusion. Gathered data included admission diagnosis, duration of ventilation, length of stay in the ICU, length of stay in hospital, discharge status using Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC). All patients received intermittent extended TCD monitoring following inclusion in the study. Parameters of interest included TCD-based indices of cerebral autoregulation, non-invasive intracranial pressure, autonomic system parameters (based on heart rate variability), critical closing pressure, the cerebrovascular time constant and indices describing the shape of the TCD pulse waveform. RESULTS: Thirty-seven patients were included in the final analysis, with 21 patients classified as good outcome (CPC 1-2) and 16 as poor neurological outcomes (CPC 3-5). Three patients were excluded due to inadequacies identified in the TCD acquisition. The results indicated that irrespective of the primary diagnosis, non-survivors had significantly disturbed cerebral autoregulation, a shorter cerebrovascular time constant and a more distorted TCD pulse waveform (all p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Preliminary results from the trial indicate that multi-parameter TCD neuromonitoring increases outcome-predictive power and TCD-based indices can be applied to general intensive care monitoring.

Studying the post-COVID-19 condition: research challenges, strategies, and importance of Core Outcome Set development.

BACKGROUND: A substantial portion of people with COVID-19 subsequently experience lasting symptoms including fatigue, shortness of breath, and neurological complaints such as cognitive dysfunction many months after acute infection. Emerging evidence suggests that this condition, commonly referred to as long COVID but also known as post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC) or post-COVID-19 condition, could become a significant global health burden. MAIN TEXT: While the number of studies investigating the post-COVID-19 condition is increasing, there is no agreement on how this new disease should be defined and diagnosed in clinical practice and what relevant outcomes to measure. There is an urgent need to optimise and standardise outcome measures for this important patient group both for clinical services and for research and to allow comparing and pooling of data. CONCLUSIONS: A Core Outcome Set for post-COVID-19 condition should be developed in the shortest time frame possible, for improvement in data quality, harmonisation, and comparability between different geographical locations. We call for a global initiative, involving all relevant partners, including, but not limited to, healthcare professionals, researchers, methodologists, patients, and caregivers. We urge coordinated actions aiming to develop a Core Outcome Set (COS) for post-COVID-19 condition in both the adult and paediatric populations.

Development and validation of a dynamic 48-hour in-hospital mortality risk stratification for COVID-19 in a UK teaching hospital: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a disease stratification model for COVID-19 that updates according to changes in a patient's condition while in hospital to facilitate patient management and resource allocation. DESIGN: In this retrospective cohort study, we adopted a landmarking approach to dynamic prediction of all-cause in-hospital mortality over the next 48 hours. We accounted for informative predictor missingness and selected predictors using penalised regression. SETTING: All data used in this study were obtained from a single UK teaching hospital. PARTICIPANTS: We developed the model using 473 consecutive patients with COVID-19 presenting to a UK hospital between 1 March 2020 and 12 September 2020; and temporally validated using data on 1119 patients presenting between 13 September 2020 and 17 March 2021. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome is all-cause in-hospital mortality within 48 hours of the prediction time. We accounted for the competing risks of discharge from hospital alive and transfer to a tertiary intensive care unit for extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. RESULTS: Our final model includes age, Clinical Frailty Scale score, heart rate, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation/fractional inspired oxygen ratio, white cell count, presence of acidosis (pH <7.35) and interleukin-6. Internal validation achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of 0.90 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.93) and temporal validation gave an AUROC of 0.86 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.88). CONCLUSIONS: Our model incorporates both static risk factors (eg, age) and evolving clinical and laboratory data, to provide a dynamic risk prediction model that adapts to both sudden and gradual changes in an individual patient's clinical condition. On successful external validation, the model has the potential to be a powerful clinical risk assessment tool. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study is registered as 'researchregistry5464' on the Research Registry (www.researchregistry.com).

A living WHO guideline on drugs to prevent COVID-19

Clinical question What is the role of drugs in preventing covid-19? Why does this matter?There is widespread interest in whether drug interventions can be used for the prevention of covid-19, but there is uncertainty about which drugs, if any, are effective. The first version of this living guideline focuses on the evidence for hydroxychloroquine. Subsequent updates will cover other drugs being investigated for their role in the prevention of covid-19. The guideline development panel made a strong recommendation against the use of hydroxychloroquine for individuals who do not have covid-19 (high certainty). How this guideline was created This living guideline is from the World Health Organization (WHO) and provides up to date covid-19 guidance to inform policy and practice worldwide. Magic Evidence Ecosystem Foundation (MAGIC) provided methodological support. A living systematic review with network analysis informed the recommendations. An international guideline development panel of content experts, clinicians, patients, an ethicist and methodologists produced recommendations following standards for trustworthy guideline development using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. Understanding the new recommendation The linked systematic review and network meta-analysis (6 trials and 6059 participants) found that hydroxychloroquine had a small or no effect on mortality and admission to hospital (high certainty evidence). There was a small or no effect on laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (moderate certainty evidence) but probably increased adverse events leading to discontinuation (moderate certainty evidence). The panel judged that almost all people would not consider this drug worthwhile. In addition, the panel decided that contextual factors such as resources, feasibility, acceptability, and equity for countries and healthcare systems were unlikely to alter the recommendation. The panel considers that this drug is no longer a research priority and that resources should rather be oriented to evaluate other more promising drugs to prevent covid-19. Updates This is a living guideline. New recommendations will be published in this article and signposted by update notices to this guideline.

Clinical Features, Inpatient Trajectories and Frailty in Older Inpatients with COVID-19: A Retrospective Observational Study.

INTRODUCTION: We describe the clinical features and inpatient trajectories of older adults hospitalized with COVID-19 and explore relationships with frailty. METHODS: This retrospective observational study included older adults admitted as an emergency to a University Hospital who were diagnosed with COVID-19. Patient characteristics and hospital outcomes, primarily inpatient death or death within 14 days of discharge, were described for the whole cohort and by frailty status. Associations with mortality were further evaluated using Cox Proportional Hazards Regression (Hazard Ratio (HR), 95% Confidence Interval). RESULTS: 214 patients (94 women) were included of whom 142 (66.4%) were frail with a median Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) score of 6. Frail compared to nonfrail patients were more likely to present with atypical symptoms including new or worsening confusion (45.1% vs. 20.8%, p < 0.001) and were more likely to die (66% vs. 16%, p = 0.001). Older age, being male, presenting with high illness acuity and high frailty were independent predictors of death and a dose-response association between frailty and mortality was observed (CFS 1-4: reference; CFS 5-6: HR 1.78, 95% CI 0.90, 3.53; CFS 7-8: HR 2.57, 95% CI 1.26, 5.24). CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians should have a low threshold for testing for COVID-19 in older and frail patients during periods of community viral transmission, and diagnosis should prompt early advanced care planning.

Current challenges in the management of sepsis in ICUs in resource-poor settings and suggestions for the future.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis is a major reason for intensive care unit (ICU) admission, also in resource-poor settings. ICUs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) face many challenges that could affect patient outcome. AIM: To describe differences between resource-poor and resource-rich settings regarding the epidemiology, pathophysiology, economics and research aspects of sepsis. We restricted this manuscript to the ICU setting even knowing that many sepsis patients in LMICs are treated outside an ICU. FINDINGS: Although many bacterial pathogens causing sepsis in LMICs are similar to those in high-income countries, resistance patterns to antimicrobial drugs can be very different; in addition, causes of sepsis in LMICs often include tropical diseases in which direct damaging effects of pathogens and their products can sometimes be more important than the response of the host. There are substantial and persisting differences in ICU capacities around the world; not surprisingly the lowest capacities are found in LMICs, but with important heterogeneity within individual LMICs. Although many aspects of sepsis management developed in rich countries are applicable in LMICs, implementation requires strong consideration of cost implications and the important differences in resources. CONCLUSIONS: Addressing both disease-specific and setting-specific factors is important to improve performance of ICUs in LMICs. Although critical care for severe sepsis is likely cost-effective in LMIC setting, more detailed evaluation at both at a macro- and micro-economy level is necessary. Sepsis management in resource-limited settings is a largely unexplored frontier with important opportunities for research, training, and other initiatives for improvement.